- 자동차부품제조업의 부도 위험 수준 예측 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 박근영,한현수,Park. Kuen-Young,Han. Hyun-Soo
- ㆍ 간행물명
- Journal of information technology applications & management
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|20권 4호|pp.221-234 (14 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국데이타베이스학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper, we report bankruptcy risk level forecasting result for automobile parts manufacturing industry. With the premise that upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk could impact on automobile parts industry bankruptcy level in advance, we draw upon industry input-output table to use the economic indicators which could reflect the extent of supply and demand risk of the automobile parts industry. To verify the validity of each economic indicator, we applied simple linear regression for each indicators by varying the time lag from one month (t-1) to 12 months (t-12). Finally, with the valid indicators obtained through the simple regressions, the composition of valid economic indicators are derived using stepwise linear regression. Using the monthly automobile parts industry bankruptcy frequency data accumulated during the 5 years, R-square values of the stepwise linear regression results are 68.7%, 91.5%, 85.3% for the 3, 6, 9 months time lag cases each respectively. The computational testing results verifies the effectiveness of our approach in forecasting bankruptcy risk forecasting of the automobile parts industry.