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Cohort Analysis of Incidence/Mortality of Liver Cancer in Japan through Logistic Curve Fitting
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  • Cohort Analysis of Incidence/Mortality of Liver Cancer in Japan through Logistic Curve Fitting
  • Cohort Analysis of Incidence/Mortality of Liver Cancer in Japan through Logistic Curve Fitting
저자명
Okamoto. Etsuji
간행물명
Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP
권/호정보
2013년|14권 10호|pp.5891-5893 (3 pages)
발행정보
아시아태평양암예방학회
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정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

Incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves because there is a limit reflecting the prevalence of hepatitis virus carriers in the cohort. The author fitted logistic curves to incidence/mortality data covering the nine five-year cohorts born in 1911-1955 of both sexes. Goodness-of-fit of logistic curves was sufficiently precise to be used for future predictions. Younger cohorts born in 1936 or later were predicted to show constant decline in incidence/mortality in the future. The male cohort born in 1931-35 showed an elevated incidence/mortality of liver cancer early in their lives supporting the previous claim that this particular cohort had suffered massive HCV infection due to nation-wide drug abuse in the 1950s. Declining case-fatality observed in younger cohorts suggested improved treatment of liver cancer. This study demonstrated that incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves and fitted logistic formulae can be used for future prediction. Given the predicted decline of incidence/mortality in younger cohorts, liver cancer is likely to be lost to history in the not-so-distant future.