기관회원 [로그인]
소속기관에서 받은 아이디, 비밀번호를 입력해 주세요.
개인회원 [로그인]

비회원 구매시 입력하신 핸드폰번호를 입력해 주세요.
본인 인증 후 구매내역을 확인하실 수 있습니다.

회원가입
서지반출
실시간 앙상블 가뭄전망정보 생산 체계 구축 및 평가
[STEP1]서지반출 형식 선택
파일형식
@
서지도구
SNS
기타
[STEP2]서지반출 정보 선택
  • 제목
  • URL
돌아가기
확인
취소
  • 실시간 앙상블 가뭄전망정보 생산 체계 구축 및 평가
저자명
배덕효,안중배,김현경,김헌애,손경환,조세라,정의석,Bae. Deg-Hyo,Ahn. Joong-Bae,Kim. Hyun-Kyung,Kim. Heon-Ae,Son. Kyung-Hwan,Cho. Se-Ra,Jung. Ui-Seok
간행물명
대기
권/호정보
2013년|23권 1호|pp.113-121 (9 pages)
발행정보
한국기상학회
파일정보
정기간행물|
PDF텍스트
주제분야
기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate the system to produce the real-time ensemble drought prediction data. Ensemble drought prediction consists of 3 processes (meteorological outlook using the multi-initial conditions, hydrological analysis and drought index calculation) therefore, more processing time and data is required than that of single member. For ensemble drought prediction, data process time is optimized and hardware of existing system is upgraded. Ensemble drought data is estimated for year 2012 and to evaluate the accuracy of drought prediction data by using ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) analysis. We obtained 5 ensembles as optimal number and predicted drought condition for every tenth day i.e. 5th, 15th and 25th of each month. The drought indices used are SPI (Standard Precipitation Index), SRI (Standard Runoff Index), SSI (Standard Soil moisture Index). Drought conditions were determined based on results obtained for each ensemble member. Overall the results showed higher accuracy using ensemble members as compared to single. The ROC score of SRI and SSI showed significant improvement in drought period however SPI was higher in the demise period. The proposed ensemble drought prediction system can be contributed to drought forecasting techniques in Korea.