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Daily Electric Load Forecasting Based on RBF Neural Network Models
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  • Daily Electric Load Forecasting Based on RBF Neural Network Models
  • Daily Electric Load Forecasting Based on RBF Neural Network Models
저자명
Hwang. Heesoo
간행물명
International journal of fuzzy logic and intelligent systems
권/호정보
2013년|13권 1호|pp.39-49 (11 pages)
발행정보
한국지능시스템학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

This paper presents a method of improving the performance of a day-ahead 24-h load curve and peak load forecasting. The next-day load curve is forecasted using radial basis function (RBF) neural network models built using the best design parameters. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the load curve forecasted using the RBF network models is corrected by the weighted sum of both the error of the current prediction and the change in the errors between the current and the previous prediction. The optimal weights (called "gains" in the error correction) are identified by differential evolution. The peak load forecasted by the RBF network models is also corrected by combining the load curve outputs of the RBF models by linear addition with 24 coefficients. The optimal coefficients for reducing both the forecasting mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and the sum of errors are also identified using differential evolution. The proposed models are trained and tested using four years of hourly load data obtained from the Korea Power Exchange. Simulation results reveal satisfactory forecasts: 1.230% MAPE for daily peak load and 1.128% MAPE for daily load curve.