- 전력수요 변동률을 이용한 연휴에 대한 단기 전력수요예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김시연,임종훈,박정도,송경빈,Kim. Si-Yeon,Lim. Jong-Hun,Park. Jeong-Do,Song. Kyung-Bin
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 照明·電氣設備學會論文誌
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|27권 6호|pp.17-22 (6 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국조명전기설비학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Fuzzy linear regression method has been used for short-term load forecasting of the special day in the previous researches. However, considerable load forecasting errors would be occurring if a special day is located on Saturday or Monday. In this paper, a new load forecasting method for the consecutive holidays is proposed with the consideration of the power demand variation rate. In the proposed method, a exponential smoothing model reflecting temperature is used to short-term load forecasting for Sunday during the consecutive holidays and then the loads of the special day during the consecutive holidays is calculated using the hourly power demand variation rate between the previous similar consecutive holidays. The proposed method is tested with 10 cases of the consecutive holidays from 2009 to 2012. Test results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method is improved about 2.96% by comparison with the fuzzy linear regression method.