- 제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안
- ㆍ 저자명
- 홍정식,구훈영,Hong. Jungsik,Koo. Hoonyoung
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 韓國經營科學會誌
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|38권 1호|pp.45-59 (15 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국경영과학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (i) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ii) market potential is the most stable information, and (iii) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.