경기도내 유통 농산물 중 잔류농약 모니터링(2006~2010)결과 chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dicofol, endosulfan, EPN, ethoprophos, fenitrothion, methidathion, phenthoate와 tebupirimfos 등 농약10종에 대하여 확률론적 노출평가를 실시하였다. 몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 활용하였고, 농도와 섭취량의 분포는 모수인 평균과 표준편차를 입력하여 lognormal로 가정하였다. 농약별 평균과 95백분위수의 위해도는 결정론적 노출평가결과에 비해 대체로 낮게 나타났다. 위해도(%ADI)는 전국민 대상에 농도 불검출 데이터에 LOD = 0 mg/kg을 적용한 경우 평균과 95백분위수에서 각각 0.05~0.70%와 0.11~1.94%로 나타났다. LOD = 0.005 mg/kg을 적용한 경우는 평균과 95백분위수에서 각각 0.41~4.42%와 0.98~13.81%로 나타났다. 섭취자군 대상에 농도 불검출 데이터에 LOD = 0 mg/kg을 적용한 경우 평균과 95백분위수에서 각각 1.24~10.16%와 3.72~33.81%로 나타났다. LOD = 0.005 mg/kg을 적용한 경우 평균과 95백분위수는 각각 3.43~18.26%과 9.45~54.99%로 나타났다. 섭취자군에서는 LOD = 0과 LOD = 0.005를 적용한 위해도 평균과 95백분위수는 모두 methidathion이 가장 높게 나타났다. 경기도내 유통 농산물의 잔류농약에 대한 확률론적 노출위해도는 100미만으로 모두 안전한 것으로 나타났다.
A probabilistic exposure assessment was performed on the monitoring data of pesticides were assessed in agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do from 2006 to 2010. Chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dicofol, endosulfan, EPN, ethoprophos, fenitrothion, methidathion, phenthoate and tebupirimfos were assessed. For this assessment, we used Monte Carlo simulation software and the distribution of concentration and intake were assumed to lognormal distribution by inputting mean and standard deviation. The hazard index (HI, %ADI) of average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile based on a probabilistic method were usually lower than those by a deterministic one. For the whole population, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile showed 0.05~0.70% and 0.11~1.94%, respectively. When nondetects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 0.41~4.42% and 0.98~13.81%. For only consumers, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 1.24~10.16% and 3.72~33.81%, respectively. When non-detects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 3.43~18.26% and 9.45~54.99%, respectively. Methidathion had highest values when both of 0 and 0.005 were assigned to non-detecs data for consumers only. This study showed that agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do were safe because they had less than 100 of HI (%ADI) based on probabilistic exposure assessment.
