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Estimating the Loss Ratio of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation through Stochastic Analysis
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  • Estimating the Loss Ratio of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation through Stochastic Analysis
  • Estimating the Loss Ratio of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation through Stochastic Analysis
저자명
Hong. Taehoon,Koo. Choongwan,Lee. Minhyun
간행물명
Journal of construction engineering and project management
권/호정보
2013년|3권 3호|pp.23-34 (12 pages)
발행정보
한국건설관리학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

As climate change and environmental pollution become one of the biggest global issues today, new renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) system, is getting great attention as a sustainable energy source. However, initial investment cost of PV system is considerable, and thus, it is crucial to predict electricity generation accurately before installation of the system. This study analyzes the loss ratio of solar photovoltaic electricity generation from the actual PV system monitoring data to predict electricity generation more accurately in advance. This study is carried out with the following five steps: (i) Data collection of actual electricity generation from PV system and the related information; (ii) Calculation of simulation-based electricity generation; (iii) Comparative analysis between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation based on the seasonality; (iv) Stochastic approach by defining probability distribution of loss ratio between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation ; and (v) Case study by conducting Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on the probability distribution function of loss ratio. The results of this study could be used (i) to estimate electricity generation from PV system more accurately before installation of the system, (ii) to establish the optimal maintenance strategy for the different application fields and the different season, and (iii) to conduct feasibility study on investment at the level of life cycle.