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INCORPORATING PRIOR BELIEF IN THE GENERAL PATH MODEL: A COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SOURCES
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  • INCORPORATING PRIOR BELIEF IN THE GENERAL PATH MODEL: A COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SOURCES
  • INCORPORATING PRIOR BELIEF IN THE GENERAL PATH MODEL: A COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SOURCES
저자명
Coble. Jamie,Hines. J. W esley
간행물명
Nuclear engineering and technology : an international journal of the Korean Nuclear Society
권/호정보
2014년|46권 6호|pp.773-782 (10 pages)
발행정보
한국원자력학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

The general path model (GPM) is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively) prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.