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Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities
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  • Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities
  • Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities
저자명
Kim. Sun-Young,Yi. Seon-Ju,Eum. Young Seob,Choi. Hae-Jin,Shin. Hyesop,Ryou. Hyoung Gon,Kim. Ho
간행물명
Environmental health and toxicology : EHT
권/호정보
2014년|29권 6호|pp.12-13 (2 pages)
발행정보
환경독성보건학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to $10{mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly $PM_{10}$ data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared ($R^2$) statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average $PM_{10}$ concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and $66.0{mu}g/m^3$ (standard deviation=2.40 and $9.51{mu}g/m^3$, respectively). Cross-validated $R^2$ values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had $R^2$ values of zero. The national model produced a higher cross-validated $R^2$ (0.36) than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate $PM_{10}$ source characteristics.