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Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era
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  • Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era
  • Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era
저자명
Park. Nyun-Bae,Lee. Sanghoon,Han. Jin-Yi,Jeon. Eui Chan
간행물명
Asian journal of atmospheric environment
권/호정보
2014년|8권 1호|pp.59-68 (10 pages)
발행정보
한국대기환경학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.