This paper presents a probabilistic method to evaluate the total transfer capability (TTC) by considering the sequential quadratic programming and the uncertainty of weather conditions. After the initial TTC is calculated by sequential quadratic programming (SQP), the transient stability is checked by time simulation. Also because power systems are exposed to a variety of weather conditions the outage probability is increased due to the weather condition. The probabilistic approach is necessary to evaluate the TTC, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC by considering the various weather conditions.