We consider changes in the fishing ground of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis and discuss their utility in predicting fishing conditions for this species. The fishing ground, which having been formed around Jeju Island since the 1970s, is dominated by the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water (YSBCW), and variation in its southward expansion from the Yellow Sea is the single most key environmental factor affecting the L. polyactis catch. When the YSBCW showed strong expansion and the fishing ground shifted to the west and southwest of Jeju Island, as occurred in the late 1980s, late 1990s, and early 2000s, the L. polyactis catch was low; conversely, when expansion was weak, as in the early 1990s and late 2000s, the L. polyactis catch was high. This relationship was statistically significant and should be useful in predicting fishing conditions for L. polyactis.