- 2013년 태풍에 대한 수치모델들의 강도 예측성 평가
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김지선,이우정,강기룡,변건영,김지영,윤원태,Kim. Ji-Seon,Lee. Woojeong,Kang. KiRyong,Byun. Kun-Young,Kim. Jiyoung,Yun. Won-Tae
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2014년|24권 3호|pp.419-432 (14 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.