A Trojan malicious code is one of largest malicious codes and has been known as a virus that causes damage to a system as itself. However, it has been changed as a type that picks user information out stealthily through a backdoor method, and worms or viruses, which represent a characteristic of the Trojan malicious code, have recently been increased. Although several modeling methods for analyzing the diffusion characteristics of worms have proposed, it allows a macroscopic analysis only and shows limitations in estimating specific viruses and malicious codes. Thus, in this study an ESP model that can estimate future occurrences of Trojan malicious codes using the previous Trojan data is proposed. It is verified that the estimated value obtained using the proposed model is similar to the existing actual frequency in causes of the comparison between the obtained value and the result obtained by the Markov chain.