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시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 차급별 월간 자동차 수요 예측 모델 개발
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  • 시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 차급별 월간 자동차 수요 예측 모델 개발
  • Development of a System Dynamics Model for Forecasting the Automobile Market
저자명
곽상만,김기찬,안수웅,장원혁,홍정석
간행물명
한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구
권/호정보
2002년|3권 1호|pp.79-104 (26 pages)
발행정보
한국시스템다이내믹스학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.