- Economic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses
- ㆍ 저자명
- Danny Leipziger, Carl J. Dahlman, and Shahid Yusuf
- ㆍ 간행물명
- KIEP 연구보고서
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2017년|pp.1-343 (343 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대외경제정책연구원|한국
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 기타|ENG| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 사회과학
본 연구의 목적은 앞으로 한국 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 수 있는 외부 요인과 그 영향을 분석하는 것으로, 글로벌 경제에 내재된 리스크를 반영한 게임체인징(Game-changing) 시나리오 분석 방법을 활용했다. 시나리오 분석은 일어날 가능성은 적지만 발생했을 때 그 결과에 매우 큰 영향을 미치는 사건 즉, 블랙스완(Black Swan)을 대비하는 것이 매우 유용하다는 전제를 두고 있다. 그리고 블랙스완(Black Swan)의 발생은 한국과 같이 외부요인에 비교적 취약한 국가에는 그다지 비현실적인 것이 아니다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구는 중기적으로(2017~2022년) 한국 정부가 직면한 정책 대안을 실질적으로 변화시킬 수 있는 시나리오를 한국과 중국, 중국과 미국, 한국과 미국 관계의 맥락에서 분석하였다. 먼저 중요한 ‘메가트렌드’인 탈세계화(de-globalization), 획기적인 기술혁신(disruptive technologies), 글로벌 불확실성의 확대(greater global uncertainty)를 검토하고, 이러한 예측할 수 없는 상황을 바탕으로 하여 한국에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있는 세 가지 게임체인징(game-changing) 시나리오를 설정했다. 본 연구에서 설정한 시나리오는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 중국과 미국 사이에서 발생한 것이지만 전 세계에 영향을 미치는 무역전쟁(A Trade War), 둘째, 성장과 무역 둔화로 인한 중국의 위기(A Troubled China), 셋째, 2008~2009년 글로벌 금융위기와 유사한 글로벌 위기(Global Meltdown)이다. 본 시나리오 분석은 한국 경제를 연구하는 데에 매우 적절하다고 판단된다. 또한, 한국의 정책 당국자 및 연구자에게 경제 리스크와 회복에 관하여 심층적인 견해를 제시함으로써 중기적으로 한국 경제에 심각한 혼란을 일으킬 수 있는 사건을 대비하는 데 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다.
This paper aims to examine some plausible external shocks that can significantly affect Korea’s economic future. It does so by analyzing game-changing scenarios that emanate from a candid assessment of the risks inherent in the global economy. It is based on the premise that it is extremely useful to plan for the less likely events, especially if those events are associated with significantly altered outcomes. These “Black Swan” occurrences are not as far-fetched as one may think, particularly for a country as vulnerable as South Korea. It is for this reason that the report examines scenarios that might materially alter the policy choices facing Korean authorities in the medium term (2017-2022). These scenarios are analyzed in the context of relations between Korea and China, China and the United States and Korea and the United States. The approach of the Report is to first examine major “mega-trends” of de-globalization, disruptive technologies, and greater global uncertainty, and in this context of “shifting sands” to build three game- changing scenarios that can substantially affect Korea. There are three scenarios: A Trade War, initially between China and the United States but with global ramifications; a Troubled China, with significantly lower growth and trade implications; and a Global Meltdown, reminiscent of 2008-2009. We believe there are few countries for which this kind of analysis is more germane than for Korea. The Report aims to hasten further deliberation on the topics of risk and resilience in the Korean policy community to increase preparedness for events that could cause significant disruption to the Korean economy in the medium term.
Preface Executive Summary Acknowledgements GDI: Research Team and Advisors Chapter 1. Project Introduction and Purpose Chapter 2. The Nature of Scenario Analyses and Its Use Why Scenario Analysis? The Methodology Underlying Scenario Analysis Use of Scenario Analysis in This Report Chapter 3. The Gamut of Economic Risks Facing Korea Today The Idea of a Risk Profile Korea’s Risk Profile in Brief Medium Term Risks Facing the Korean Economy Conclusions Chapter 4. Mega-trends Influencing Medium-Term Scenarios An Overview Mega-trend 1: The Trend Towards De-globalization Introduction The global trade slowdown Corporate retrenchment away from the Global Production Model Globalization failures magnified by policy myopia Conclusion Mega-trend 2: Disruptive Technologies and Impacts An overview Disruptive technologies The impact of disruptive technologies on jobs Impact of disruptive technologies on trade Impact of disruptive technologies on global value chains Conclusions Mega-trend 3: Persistent Global Uncertainty An overview Post crisis trends that prompt greater uncertainty Does uncertainty drag down growth? Uncertainty and the economy Black swans Concluding observations Chapter 5. A Trade War Scenario Introduction A Historical Perspective Why a U.S. Trade War with China? Starting a Trade War is Easy, Controlling it Less So The Impact on Korea Chapter 6. A Troubled China Scenario Introduction to the Current Baseline Scenario The Troubled China Scenario The Case of a China Slowdown The Case of a Financial Crisis The Case of Dramatic Rebalancing Combined Troubled China scenario and its Implications Chapter 7. A Global Meltdown Scenario Introduction A Global Meltdown Scenario The Major Economies The Trade Story Dominates Financial Stagnation and Protectionism Global Inaction Increases Risks Chapter 8. Risk Assessment and Analysis: Vulnerabilities and Resilience Introduction The Chinese Challenge Rapid Development of Technological Capability Competition in Exports Ambitious innovation plans Managing Risks Improving Efficiency and Flexibility in the Economy Overall competitiveness and the institutional and market regime Labor market efficiency Financial market development Social protection systems Strengthening Innovation Capacity Innovation capacity indicators Skills of the labor force Entrepreneurial skills and entrepreneurial ecosystem Conclusions on strengthening innovation Increasing Trade Diversification The Asian Region and RCEP Potential for increasing trade with India Conclusions and Key Recommendations Improving Efficiency and Flexibility of the Economy Strengthening Innovation Increasing Trade Diversification Final Thoughts Annex Background Notes A. The Economic Relationship between China and the U.S. B. U.S. Trade Policy toward China C. Implications of Disruptive Technology for Korea D. The Economic Relationship between Korea and the U.S. E. Levels of Economic Integration between Korea and China References