- 전자제품 판매매출액 시계열의 계절 조정과 수요예측에 관한 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 서명율,이종태,Seo. Myeong-Yul,Rhee. Jong-Tae
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 신뢰성응용연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2003년|3권 1호|pp.13-40 (28 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국신뢰성학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The seasonal adjustment is an essential process in analyzing the time series of economy and business. One of the powerful adjustment methods is X11-ARIMA Model which is popularly used in Korea. This method was delivered from Canada. However, this model has been developed to be appropriate for Canadian and American environment. Therefore, we need to review whether the X11-ARIMA Model could be used properly in Korea. In this study, we have applied the method to the annual sales of refrigerator sales in A electronic company. We appreciated the adjustment by result analyzing the time series components such as seasonal component, trend-cycle component, and irregular component, with the proposed method. Additionally, in order to improve the result of seasonal adjusted time series, we suggest the demand forecasting method base on autocorrelation and seasonality with the X11-ARIMA PROC.