It is already known that hardness number of cold-forged product is in close conjunction with its effective strain. This paper presents the method to predict the relation between effective strains and hardness by using FE-simulation of hardness test from the conception that hardness indicates resistance to plastic deformation. The results of FE-simulation for the materials are compared with those of experiments and also compared with those of experiments in reference to show the feasibility of the proposed method. In addition, the present method was applied to the cold-forged product to verify the relation between hardness and effective strain. As a result, the predicted hardness number by the present method is in good agreement with experimental values. Prediction of hardness fur a cold-forged product comes to be possible by estimating the relation between effective strain and hardness using the proposed method in this study.