- 기후변화에 따른 북극해 빙해역 변화
- ㆍ 저자명
- 권미옥,장찬주,이호진,Kwon. Mi-Ok,Jang. Chan-Joo,Lee. Ho-Jin
- ㆍ 간행물명
- Ocean and polar research
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2010년|32권 4호|pp.379-386 (8 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국해양연구원
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This study examines changes in the Arctic sea ice associated with global warming by analyzing the climate coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) provided in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We selected nine models for better performance under 20th century climate conditions based on two different criteria, and then estimated the changes in sea ice extent under global warming conditions. Under projected 21st century climate conditions, all models, with the exception of the GISS-AOM model, project a reduction in sea ice extent in all seasons. The mean reduction in summer (-63%) is almost four times larger than that in winter (-16%), resulting an enhancement of seasonal variations in sea ice extent. The difference between the models, however, becomes larger under the 21st century climate conditions than under 20th century conditions, thus limiting the reliability of sea-ice projections derived from the current CGCMs.