- 마코비안 도착과정을 이용한 축구경기 득점결과의 예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김남기,박현민,Kim. Nam-Ki,Park. Hyun-Min
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 산업공학
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2011년|24권 4호|pp.323-329 (7 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대한산업공학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
We develop a stochastic model to predict the score of a soccer match. We describe the scoring process of the soccer match as a markovian arrival process (MAP). To do this, we define a two-state underlying Markov chain, in which the two states represent the offense and defense states of the two teams to play. Then, we derive the probability vector generating function of the final scores. Numerically inverting this generating function, we obtain the desired probability distribution of the scores. Sample numerical examples are given at the end to demonstrate how to utilize this result to predict the final score of the match.