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Global warming and biodiversity model projections
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  • Global warming and biodiversity model projections
  • Global warming and biodiversity model projections
저자명
Ihm. Byung-Sun,Lee. Jeom-Sook,Kim. Jong-Wook
간행물명
Journal of ecology and field biology : JEFB
권/호정보
2012년|35권 3호|pp.157-166 (10 pages)
발행정보
한국생태학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Many models intending to explain the latitudinal gradient of increasing species diversity from the poles to the equator are presented, which are a formalisation of the species-energy hypothesis. The model predictions are consistent with patterns of increasing species number with increasing mean air or water temperatures for plants and animals. An increase in species richness is also correlated with net primary production or the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. This implies that increased availability of resources favours increased diversity capacity. The explanatory variables included in the biodiversity prediction models represent measures of water, energy, water-energy, habitat, history/evolution and biological responses. Water variables tend to be the best predictors when the geographic scope of the data is restricted to tropical and subtropical areas, whereas water-energy variables dominate when colder areas are included. In major models, about 20-35% of species in the various global regions (European, Africa, etc.) will disappear from each grid cell by 2050 and >50% could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. This study provides good explanations for predictive models and future changes in biodiversity depending on various scenarios.