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Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data
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  • Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data
  • Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data
저자명
오덕교,Oh. Deok-Kyo
간행물명
한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구
권/호정보
2012년|13권 2호|pp.47-71 (25 pages)
발행정보
한국시스템다이내믹스학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

The purpose of this research is the examination of validity of data as well as simulation model, i.e. to simulate the real data in the SD model with the least error using the adjustments for the faithful reflection of real data to the simulation. In general, SD programs (e.g. VENSIM) utilize the Euler or Runge-Kutta method as an algorithm. It is possible to reflect the trend of real data via these two estimation methods however can cause the validity problem in case of the simulation requiring the accuracy as they have endogenous errors. In this article, the future population estimated by the Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) to 2050 is simulated by the aging chain model, dividing the population into three cohorts, 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over cohorts by age and offering the adjustments to them. Adjustments are calculated by optimization with three different methods, optimization in EXCEL, manual optimization with iterative calculation, and optimization in VENSIM DSS, the results are compared, and at last the optimal adjustment set with the least error are found among them. The simulation results with the pre-determined optimal adjustment set are validated by methods proposed by Barlas (1996) and other alternative methods. It is concluded that the result of simulation model in this research has no significant difference from the real data and reflects the real trend faithfully.