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농업분야 온실가스 배출량 산정의 불확도 추정 및 평가
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  • 농업분야 온실가스 배출량 산정의 불확도 추정 및 평가
저자명
배연정,배승종,서일환,서교,이정재,김건엽,Bae. Yeon-Joung,Bae. Seung-Jong,Seo. Il-Hwan,Seo. Kyo,Lee. Jeong-Jae,Kim. Gun-Yeob
간행물명
농촌계획 : 韓國農村計劃學會誌
권/호정보
2013년|19권 4호|pp.125-135 (11 pages)
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한국농촌계획학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Analysis and evaluation of uncertainty is adopting the advanced methodology among the methods for greenhouse gas emission assessment that was defined in GPS2000 (Good practice guideline 2000) and GPG-LULUCF (GPG Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). In 2006 IPCC guideline, two approaches are suggested to explain the uncertainty for each section with a national net emission and a prediction value on uncertainty as follows; 1) Spread sheet calculation based on the error propagation algorithm that was simplified with some assumptions, and 2) Monte carlo simulation that can be utilized in general purposes. There are few researches on the agricultural field including greenhouse gas emission that is generated from livestock and cultivation lands due to lack of information for statistic data, emission coefficient, and complicated emission formula. The main objective of this study is to suggest an evaluation method for the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission in agricultural field by means of intercomparison of the prediction value on uncertainties which were estimated by spread sheet calculation and monte carlo simulation. A statistic analysis for probability density function for uncertainty of emission rate was carried out by targeting livestock intestinal fermentation, excrements treatment, and direct/indirect emission from agricultural lands and rice cultivation. It was suggested to minimize uncertainty by means of extraction of emission coefficient according to each targeting section.