- 귀농과 농가 고령화: 귀농인구 유입에 따른 농촌 인구구조 변화 예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 노재선,정진화,전지연,Roh. Jae-Sun,Jung. Jin Hwa,Jeon. Ji Yeon
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 농촌계획 : 韓國農村計劃學會誌
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|19권 4호|pp.203-212 (10 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국농촌계획학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The aging of farm households has caused serious problems such as productivity slowdown and aggravated income polarization in South Korea. Urban-to-rural migration has been recently suggested as a measure to attenuate the aging of rural population and other related problems. The inflow of migrants for farming can have a substantial effect on agriculture and rural communities while the natural adjustment of rural population caused by birth and death is slow. This paper forecasts population distribution of different provinces using the Origin-Destination (OD) analysis, taking into account both the size and directions of migration. In the analysis, nodes where the migration takes place are divided by the industrial sectors (agriculture and non-agriculture), regions, and ages. The results of a ten-year forecast shows that the aging of total population in most provinces will be intensified, but the portion of people over sixty will decrease in the agricultural sector. This finding implies that migration into rural areas, when occurring by a large extent, can mitigate the aging process and attendant problems.